Political events, especially as they relate to the much awaited 2015 general elections are gathering momentum in Katsina State, as is the case in other states of the federation with politicians engaging in hire wire politiking. In this piece, MUAZU ELAZEH outlines some factors that may shape the race for the plum seat of governor.
The race to tenant the Katsina government house is gradually gathering momentum with different persons, seen variously as political heavy weights in their respective rights, tipped to be eyeing the plum job.
As the nation inches closer to the much talked about 2015, there are widespread views that the battle for the coveted seat of Governor in Katsina will be fought like never before because of the sophistication in political manoeuvring among those tipped to be nursing guber ambition in the state.
Understandably, as at last count, no fewer than fifteen names cutting across the three political parties of PDP, APC and PDM have been associated with the race to succeed the incumbent governor Shema who is serving his second and final term.
Within the opposition PDM, the proverbial new kid on the block, having been registered late last year, the name that continually resonates is that of its de facto leader and financer, Sen Yakubu Lado Danmarke.
In the fold of All Progressive Congress (APC), unarguably the biggest threat to the dominance of ruling PDP not only in the state but at the nation at large, no fewer than six persons have been associated with the race for the guber seat.
They include former speaker of House of Representatives, Aminu Bello Masari, Sen Kanti Bello, Alhaji Sada Ilu, Rtd Col Abdulazeez Musa (Audu Soja), Amb Garba Aminchi, Senator Abu Ibrahim and Abubakar Ismaila Funtua.
Within the ruling Peoples Democratic Party-PDP- , among the names which have continued to receive wide mention within the political circle is that of the state deputy governor, Abdullahi Garba Faskari, the speaker of the PDP dominated state assembly, Rt Hon Yau Umar Gwajo-Gwajo, Minister of Mines and Steel Development, Musa Sada, Senator Ibrahim Ida, state commissioner for agriculture, Musa Adamu Funtua, Arch Aminu Yaradua, Murtala Safana and Abdullahi Tsauri a.k.a TATA.
Already, views are being expressed that the list may be far from being exhaustive for each of these three political parties which are seen within the political circles as the three some that will likely battle to out-class each other as the struggle for the plum job thickens.
As things stands out, both the opposition APC and the ruling PDP, conscious of the enormity of the struggle that lies ahead, are engaged in subtle permutations of some sort with the PDP engaged in what analysts described as “serious meeting at different levels to help mend its falling fence and placate aggrieved members before hand”.
Reflectively, Katsina state has been the strong hold of the ruling PDP which has been at the helm of affairs in the state since the dawn of the current democratic dispensation.
From 1999 to 2007, the flag of the ruling PDP flew high at the Katsina Government House where late president Musa Yaradua held sway as the governor. Of course he handed over to the incumbent Governor Shema who after a hectic battle of some sort, managed to secure a second term.
But as we inch closer to the 2015 general elections in Katsina state, there appears to be near consensus of opinion among politics watchers that the struggle by Daura and Funtua senatorial zones to produce the next governor, the Buhari Factor and indeed, influence of incumbent Governor Shema, are indisputably, the key factors that will shape outcome of the election.
Of course, among the factors that will shape outcome of the 2015 election in the state especially who gets elected as the governor is the influence and impact of the incumbent governor Shema, perhaps not so much because of his political sagacity but because he controls the state resources and its machineries thereof.
Governor Shema, typical of Nigerian governors, has firm grip of the machineries of his ruling PDP and will no doubt do all within his powers to ensure the emergence of the PDP flag bearer as the next governor of the state.
However, as Governor Shema serve his second and final term, indications are rife that he is grappling with the challenge of who succeeds him as few months to the commencement of full campaigns activities, nobody can say with certainty who is the governor’s preferred candidate among the numerous party members who are alleged to be nursing guber ambition under the platform of his ruling PDP.
Sources said that most of these potential contenders to the race have elected to remain silent as far as their ambition is concerned because they are waiting for the governor’s anointing which is yet to come.
Indeed, it is increasingly becoming too glaring by the day that, face with so many willing, capable and able party men who have tacit ambition to rule the state, governor Shema is at a dilemma of over who takes over from him with widespread rumour that the governor is toying with different alternatives, yet indecisive as to which to settle for.
Nothing exposes the fact that the governor, who understandably is the leader of his ruling People’s Democratic Party in the state, is grappling with the challenge of who succeeds him as the ongoing rumour about his supposed anointed candidate where with each passing one hears different name purported to be the anointed.
At a point in time, it was rumoured that the current minister of mines and steel development, Arch Musa Sada, a close ally of the governor, was the anointed man for the job.
But even before the rumour settles down, other different names were mentioned and purported to be the names of the anointed. This of course has created more confusion in the minds of the party followers.
Unconfirmed sources said the governor was rooting for one of his close ally and an appointee at the national level as his successor but when the matter was tabled before some elders and power brokers within the party, they vehemently objected to that proposal.
A PDP member who claimed he was privy to the said meeting but declined to be mentioned told our correspondent that the overwhelming rejection that trailed the governor’s choice was responsible for his seeming indecision as far as the anointing of a possible successor was concerned.
Like most states of the federation, political events in Katsina state are determined by the preference of the governor who is the undisputed lord of the manor. Consequently therefore, virtually all those nursing guber ambition are waiting for his anointing because, they belief is that with the support of the governor and by implication, state resources, one’s chance of clinching the plum job may well be brighter.
But unfortunately, each passing day comes with a different name of a supposed anointed candidate with even the Governor’s kitchen cabinet said to be at a loss as to who really is the anointed.
Then, there is the Buhari Factor. The Daura born General Muhammadu Buhari who has got a cult like following among the masse, understandably, the most critical mass of the nation’s voting population, is the leader of APC.
He is widely believed to have got the sympathy of the masses and has a commandeering influence on their voting pattern which will no doubt be used for the benefit of whoever emerged as his party’s flag bearer in the state.
Politics watchers asserts that mere mention of the name of the sagacious General is enough to earn a candidate the people’s vote hence, whoever has his proverbial blessing at the guber poll in the state is sure to coast to victory.
“Believe you me speaking, a sizeable percentage of our voting population, especially the youths, go out to vote on Election Day as they do because of General Buhari that is why all it takes for one to win election is for the General to present him to the voters”
“Whether the APC put its house in order in the state or not, I know for sure that whoever the General presents to the people will receive overwhelming votes at the poll and will get elected except if the PDP will as usual, do what it knows how to do best, that is, to rig the outcome” one Musa Tudun Matawalle enthused.
Equally important as a factor that will shape the outcome of the guber race is the ongoing struggle by the people of Daura and Funtua senatorial zones to produce the next governor of the state.
Since the election of the first democratic governor in the state during the defunct SDP/NRC era where Saidu Barda gets elected, to the current Governor Shema, the plum seat of Governor in the state has been cornered by persons from Katsina Senatorial District.
So far, former Governors Lawal Kaita and Abba Musa Ruimi who served during the defunct Kaduna state and, Governors Saidu Barda, Umar Musa Yaradua and Ibrahim Shehu Shema, all hail from Katsina central senatorial zone, an act that, though not necessarily deliberate, is viewed by the people of both Daura and Funtua zones as constituting highest point of power imbalance and injustice.
As should be expected, people of both the Daura and Funtua senatorial districts have been clamouring for an opportunity to produce the next governor where even within the ruling PDP, names like those of the deputy governor, Abdullahi Garba Faskari, and the Speaker of the state Assembly, Rt Hon Yau Umar Gojo-Gojo, from Funtua and Daura zones respectively, are being tipped to succeed the governor.
All things said and done, the race for the plum seat of Katsina governor promises to be dicey, fierce and revealing as different power blocks are currently engaged in high stake manoeuvring, lobbying and bridge building efforts.
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